BNP and Jamaat: Crossroads and U-turns

Can the BNP stand behind former allies who might be prosecuted for committing war crimes against their own people? This question must now float high on the list of questions BNP leadership is asking while strategizing a fecund and energized return to power.

The BNP has recently struck out in support of the three top leaders of Jamaat-e-Islami, the powerful Islamist political party.  A coalition partner in the BNP’s last turn in power, BNP leadership must now think that it will become increasingly  difficult to publicly demand the release of three the three Jamaat leaders now that reports have surfaced that the leaders claimed to have built a public campaign against the war crimes trial.

Jamaat leader, Motiur Rahman Nizami was a leader of the Al-Badar, the militia that is thought to have been responsible for killing a generation of Bangladesh’s finest intellectuals.  That burnt memory has resurfaced since the last election.  A loud endorsement, now, of Jamaat might not be the quickest route to win the plurality support needed to recapture parliament. Although at the same time, the Jamaat bloc of voters is a natural BNP ally, principally due to its shared mistrust of the Awami League in these more suspect times.

The Daily Star reports that the BNP leadership want to tease out informative signals that suggest the AL’s true intentions.  In the first instance, caution will have to dominate the day, if the AL’s is found to be sincerely resolved to prosecute Maulana Nizami and his deputies.  In the second, the AL could be using the arrests to force back the BNP’s anti-government moves.  In this circumstance, it might pay dividends to rally on about repressive political tactics and state persecution.

Neither scenario is assured at the expense of the other.  The trials would fulfill a campaign promise, while delivering a strong message to the opposition.  On the other hand, that strong message could boomerang back to the AL in the form of wider street protests and public unrest.  Anticipating this, the AL could well try to diffuse the pressure by arranging to tilt the public discourse toward prosecution while refraining from actually prosecuting.

There are good grounds for this turnaround.  Jamaat voters are a loud lot, practiced at voicing their opinions out on the streets, on top of burning cars. Though Jamaat activists have been out on the streets over the last few days, the  AL might think twice about forcing them out on the streets in a more ferocious manner.  Finally, there is the fact that much of the evidence piled high against Jamaat leaders is ancient folk-lore: compelling and affecting, but impotent.