Bangladesh and India: Good Fences Do Not Make Good Neighbors

Regional cooperation was written in the cards when two avowed socialist, left wing-ish governments came to power, in turn in India and Bangladesh.  And now, it seems the promise of regional cooperation between India and Bangladesh has come to pass, quite in contrast to its historic lineage and border linkage.

So says the Economist.

As if to prove its commitment to regional cooperation, the Economist writes, the Awami League led government of Bangladesh

“arrested and handed over to India Arabinda Rajkhowa, the chairman of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), a militant group fighting for an independent homeland for ethnic Assamese in India’s north-east state of Assam. In the past two decades at least 10,000 people have died in the insurgency. Bangladesh had already handed over a number of other ULFA leaders in November.”

Traditionally India has been worried that Bangladesh harbors jihadis who might commit terrorist acts in its own hindu land, a view that seemingly came to pass last November.  Bangladesh has been afraid of domination in its political economy.  These two countries–one of which envelops the other on three sides– are not economically important to each other, though each stands to gain much by establishing closer ties.

“The benefits of co-operation could be huge. Full economic integration with India could raise Bangladesh’s average rate of economic growth from 6% to 8%, estimates Farooq Sobhan, the president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute, a Dhaka think-tank. Now, says Mr Sobhan, for the first time, there is agreement that “unresolved problems should not stand in the way of things that can be done.”

The biggest difficulty for the Awami League may be to explain its new policy of engaging India to voters, in a country with a strong tradition of anti-Indian sentiment. But like India’s ruling Congress party, with which it has long-standing friendly ties, the League has a thumping majority and four years until an election.

Contrast this news with the developing story of the Pakistani military’s realignment with the mujahideen Haqqani network, in order to achieve “strategic depth” in Afghanistan after the much talked about, future, U.S withdrawal.  Even as Bangladesh and India come together, Pakistan is moving farther away from Bangladesh and, some might argue, India as well.  And, now U.S involvement in the region seems to be encouraging extra-statist groups to coalesce around seemingly greater ambitions, namely to expel U.S. forces from Afghanistan and Pakistan.  At the same time, the government of Afghanistan is getting closer to India, while rebuffing diplomatic efforts of Pakistan.  

Where will be we be five, ten years from now? Perhaps, we’ll observe regional bipolar alignment? Perhaps we’ll observe broader regional cooperation, though this prospect seems to be diminishing by the day.  This all remains to be seen but, really, both forecasts seem like ripe, forbidden fruit.  We eat of each and become infused with the flavor that each imparts.