Bahrain: Three Years On

For many of us, February 14 is celebrated as St. Valentine’s Day, an occasion marked by lovers expressing their love for each other by presenting flowers, candy or greeting cards. For Bahrainis, the day is marked quite differently, as it represents the third anniversary of the uprising on their tiny Gulf archipelago of 1.7 million people.  The 2011 uprising on this day was in protest for greater political rights for the Shi’ite-majority population, which has been ruled by a Sunni monarchy since the 18th century.  On that day, the protestors were eventually subdued by security forces, who cleared the main protest hub, Pearl Square, in the capital, Manama. The square was razed in the early weeks of the unrest and sealed off by security forces with the help of troops from neighboring Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia. In subsequent protests, more than 65 people have died, but others place the death toll higher.  Recent efforts by the government to seek reconciliation with opposition leaders have failed, and authorities have failed to stamp out the simmering unrest, which is now played out on the street almost daily.

The latest street battle took place on Friday, Valentine’s Day, when a blast struck a bus carrying police officers while anti-government activists clashed with police in Dih, a mainly Shi’ite village just west of the capital.  Three police officers were reportedly injured in the explosion. Meanwhile, hundreds of anti-government protesters, some of them carrying Molotov cocktails or metal rods, tried to converge in the capital on Friday attempting to get to now-demolished Pearl Square to mark the anniversary of the uprising. The explosion follows the arrest the previous day of 29 people over “rioting and vandalism” in villages outside Manama, where protesters blocked roads with metal bars, garbage containers and cinder blocks.

This most recent violence reveals that the latest rounds of political talks have failed to significantly close the rifts between the ruling party and the opposition.  Despite its small size, the stakes are high in Bahrain –  due to its hosting of the U.S. Fifth Fleet and its positioning as a potential prize to be won in the battle for regional influence between Shi’ite Muslim Iran and Sunni powerhouse Saudi Arabia.  The conflict is largely due to demands of the Shi’ite opposition for greater democratization, including cabinets chosen by an elected parliament rather than appointed exclusively by the king. The opposition is also calling for an end to discrimination against Shi’ites for jobs, housing and other benefits, and amnesty for what they claim are more than 3,000 political prisoners held in Bahraini prisons.  For its part, the government argues it has since implemented some reforms (recommended by an international investigative team) and is willing to discuss further demands.

In the three years following the uprising, a mere two rounds of reconciliation-oriented dialogue between the opposition and government have ended inconclusively.  The second round of reconciliation talks was suspended some five months ago in the face of an opposition boycott triggered by the alleged sidelining of at least two of its leaders being investigated on incitement charges and a group of Shi’ite clerics ordered to shut down by a Bahraini court. Parliamentary elections are due in October, and the ruling family is calling for the opposition to participate – the last elections were boycotted by the opposition.

While other Gulf Arab monarchies have forestalled serious Arab Spring unrest through crackdowns on opposition Islamists and lavish handouts from huge oil revenues to potentially restive sections of the population, Bahrain needs to show greater determination and sincerity at the negotiating table, while the opposition needs to stop resorting to violence.  Calls for the release of the Bahrain 13, the prominent jailed leaders of the initial uprising, are likely to go unheeded, given the ruling family’s fear, distrust and hatred toward these opposition leaders.  Bahrainis, however, are hopeful a new attempt to revive the talks backed by Crown Prince Sheikh Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, a relative moderate in the Sunni al-Khalifa ruling family, will prove more fruitful.  But unless the ruling family and current opposition leaders reconcile the deep divisions within their own parties and advance a political settlement soon, many fear a continuation and escalation of the violent militancy witnessed in the last few days.