The deployment of a reported 10,000 Syrian troops near the country's border with northern Lebanon has many concerned, according to several Arab sources. As-Sharq al-Awsat stated that some Lebanese fear that it could be the sign of a Syrian incursion, with French and Turkish cover, to counter extremists originating from northern Lebanon. However, Lebanese Army sources have stated that they were informed ahead of time about the Syrian deployment and that the number of 10,000 was an exaggeration. They were also assured by Syrian sources that the buildup was a move to prevent smuggling across the border, which has long been witnessed in that part of Lebanon.
These developments come in the context of Russian naval activity and plans to setup shop in the Syrian port of Tartus, as well as the postponement of Turkish mediated peace talks with Israel.
Despite much of the media coverage devoted to the deployment, Syria's state-run SANA News Agency has yet to touch upon it or provide an official explanation of these developments. Instead, it featured a story covering President Bashar al-Assad's meeting with army commanders to discuss new training initiatives aimed at advancing the military's preparedness (English version accessible here). The picture of al-Assad above in military fatigues was included in the story.
According to the Hariri-owned Future TV, the deployment appears to be comprised of temporary encampments and is stretched along the bank of the Nahr al-Kabir river between the ‘Arida and al-‘Aboudiya crossings. The river forms Lebanon's northern border with Syria. The image below is of one of the encampments recently erected along the border.
I’ve read that smuggling across the northern border is easiest during the dryer summer months when low seasonal rainfall, and subsequent lower river depths, make the Nahr al-Kabir easily passable for smugglers across Lebanon's northern border.
While Syria claims this increased military presence is to combat smuggling, several media outlets, especially those in the not so pro-Syrian camp, have featured commentary that paints this maneuver as being anything but innocuous. Such an argument is perhaps supported by the sheer number of Syrian troops involved in this counter-smuggling operation, as well as the alleged presence of armored units in the deployment (i.e. tanks and APCs).
Elias Hanna, a Lebanese military analyst and former army general, suggests that the timing and size of the deployment are particularly conspicuous. In an interview with the Kataeb party's website, he described the deployment as a Syrian move to emplace a hindrance upon the internal Lebanese situation in light of expected talks on reconciliation between Hezbollah and Hariri's Future Movement. He stressed that if this was in fact really a counter-smuggling operation, or a preemptive move against extremists originating from northern Lebanon, it would have taken the form of a more covert intelligence operations rather than such an overt military show of force.
Today, the pro-government Al-Mustaqbal paper labeled this move as a cover-up for digging wells along the border, providing another alternative interpretation of the deployment. Citing unnamed sources, Al-Mustaqbal states that Syria seeks to extract from the ample supplies of ground water in the area, and that a previous attempt to undertake such action was only ended after the protest of Lebanese President Michel Suleiman. It's worth noting that Syria has been dealing with water shortage issues in recent years.
The litany of potential motives behind the Syrian operation is indicative of the breadth of the state's interests in Lebanon, ranging from matters of security and politics to issues of valuable natural resources. I’d argue that the convergence of both regional and local factors may in fact have provided multiple reasons for Syria's recent military gesture, rather than one distinctive purpose which is easily attributable to a particular agenda or policy goal.
