Hard to say, this past week, who was madder and more affronted about a missed opportunity: Evgeni Plushenko, the Russian figure skater who won Olympic silver but felt he deserved gold, or Argentina, which found out that a British company was exploring for oil in the nearby but British-held Falkland Islands.
Despite losing a short war over the islands (which the Argentines call the Malvinas) in 1982, Argentina has never really come around to the idea that the islands belong to anyone else. With possibly 60 billion barrels of oil at stake, it’s got to rub salt in the wound. (This number seems high to me — if these numbers are proven, it would put the Falklands ahead of Russia, Libya and Nigeria in reserves.) Geologists had predicted oil there for a long time but until recently oil prices made it too unprofitable.
The (British) Daily Mail is reporting that Argentina will go to the UN to protest this today (February 24). But it is unreasonable to think the UN will be able to do anything, even if it wants to, beyond offering its diplomatic good offices. The Telegraph says British warships are on standby. (British papers also say that Britain’s navy might have a hard time, given how the British armed forces are shrinking and otherwise preoccupied, but a similar false analysis was put out there in the 1982 war. Britain won in less than three months.)
Argentina has turned to other Latin American countries to support its outrage. Never one to let a media opportunity slip by, President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has waded in.
In Caracas, Mr. Chávez, speaking on his radio and television show “Alo Presidente,” called on Queen Elizabeth to hand over the islands to Argentina. “Look, England, how long are you going to be in Las Malvinas? Queen of England, I’m talking to you,” Mr. Chávez said. “The time for empires is over, haven’t you noticed? Return the Malvinas to the Argentine people. Agence France-Presse 2/21/10
President Chavez is also telling the world that Argentina will not stand alone if it comes to war, despite a lack of a Venezuelan blue water navy
As infuriating as the prospect of Britain getting the oil is, according to The Economist, the situation offers Argentina’s president a political opportunity.
Because Ms Fernandez’s government, like that of her husband and predecessor, Nestor Kirchner, is unfriendly to foreign oil companies, its own oil and gas industry is steadily shrinking.
Ms Fernandez is deeply unpopular, thanks to rising inflation and evidence that the first couple have grown rich while in office. But her outrage over the Malvinas plays well at home, even if few Argentines believe that it will achieve much. When Mr Kirchner suspended charter flights to the islands and banned Argentine scientists from taking part in a binational commission on fishing, he was applauded for this.” The Economist 2/17/10
Fighting over oil usually happens in the developing world, rarely involving Britain, which has been at the forefront of telling the developing world in how to handle natural resources, and Argentina, which is not an oil power. To me, it’s kind of reassuring to see if you scratch beneath the well-behaved surface, everyone is still greedy, cutthroat and nationalistic.
Unfortunately for Argentina and all its anger over the islands, Britain is still proud and possessive of the Falklands. This matter will be resolved through diplomacy and most probably, once again, Britain will come out the winner. What do the Falkland-ers think?
