Analysis: Greece’s Courting of Israel

In a striking turn of events last week, Greece came to the rescue of Israel by curbing the highly anticipated “Freedom Flotilla II.” The contingency of 350 activists on 10 boats, mostly from the U.S. and Europe, was determined to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza. All boats were either intercepted by the Greek coastguard or were not allowed to leave their original starting points in various Greek ports. The Greek government has also banned all boat traffic from Greece to Gaza. This recent undertaking has solidified the rapidly developing alliance between Greece and Israel, but has also created an interesting political triangle between Israel, Greece and Turkey.

The heating up of Israeli-Greek relations largely coincides with the deterioration of the Israeli-Turkish relationship, which began its downfall about three years ago. The timing is no coincidence and reflects the age-old competition and animosity between Greece and Turkey. Greece sees the crumbling of Israeli-Turkish relations as an opportunity to swoop in and potentially “steal” Israel as an ally. This could further usurp Turkey’s already diminishing regional influence, while increasing Greece’s. Halting the most recent flotilla was as much about helping Israel as it was about Greece flexing its political and military muscles. It’s particularly significant given that last year’s flotilla was in part tacitly planned by individuals within the Turkish government. Greece has also agreed to provide Israel airspace, land and sea territory to conduct large-scale military exercises, something Turkey used to supply Israel until they rescinded their offer.

If Israel distances itself from Turkey, it also means it will look for other economic partners. Bilateral trade between Turkey and Israel in 2010 reached $3.5 billion, with Ankara exporting $166 million in goods. At its peak in 2008, Turkey also saw half a million Israelis visit its cities and beaches. Greece is in an abysmal economic state and needs new partners and new sources of cash and capital. Bilateral trade between Israel and Greece is now nearing the half-billion dollar mark, and around half a million Israelis visited last year. Greece would love to get those numbers even higher. It would be a double victory for them if they could do it at the expense of Turkey.

Israel also has the highest concentration of hi-tech companies in the world outside of Silicon Valley and has more listed companies on the NASDAQ than any other country besides the U.S. Greece is hoping that Israel will invest in its economy, and inspire within Greek culture an entrepreneurial drive much like Israel’s own, which has characterized their rise to the top of the OECD community. The leaders of both countries have exchanged visits, and several cooperative economic conferences have taken place in both countries. Last month the Greek-Israel Chamber of Commerce and Technology sponsored a conference to initiate collaboration in water resource management.

From the Israeli perspective, relations with Greece could not be better. Israel should continue to build what could prove to be a very successful and important ally, but be careful not to let Turkey out of their orbit completely. Not every ally has to be one in the truest sense of the word. “Friends” with official diplomatic relations in the Muslim world are far and few for Israel, and they should not take that for granted. Unless Turkey wants out of the relationship, regardless of its provocative behavior, Israel should continue attempting to mend the relationship, even if it feels counter-intuitive. There are big benefits for being friends with both countries. But, given Greece and Turkey’s history of hostility it may be difficult for a small and somewhat isolated country, like Israel, to be friends with both.