In a recently released video message Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri challenged President-Elect Obama's election promise to send more troops to Afghanistan, saying, “Be aware that the dogs of Afghanistan have found the flesh of your soldiers to be delicious, so send thousands after thousands to them,” and using other language that can only be termed racist propaganda.
I see this latest message as a tactical mistake, reinforcing the view of Al Qaeda in the popular mind as an implacable enemy, building resolve rather than undermining it. A more moderate and conciliatory message focused on the new opportunities presented by Obama's election would have undermined support for the war at a time of economic uncertainty and suggested a path toward an eventual negotiated settlement. I can only conclude that Al Qaeda is genuinely worried that the new administration will focus on territory closer to them and present a real physical threat to their survival. There seems little doubt that the U.S. will soon send more troops to Afghanistan and challenge our NATO allies to do the same. We are also starting to see the outline of an “awakening council movement” type strategy in Afghanistan that promises to expand the number of tribal allies in the fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda. In this CFR interview Barnett Rubin comments on his Foreign Affairs article in which he argues for expanding our outreach not only to local tribal leaders but also to regional powers in order to secure peace in Afghanistan. With any luck, this strategy will really give Al Qaeda something to worry about, and maybe, just maybe, they won't have time to make any more mocking videos.
