Afghanistan, Turkmenistan & Uzbekistan: NATO Summit

In an earlier post, I discussed a burgeoning Russia/NATO partnership concerning Afghanistan. This agreement, which is being negotiated as we speak at the Bucharest NATO Summit, however, may not come to fruition. Only a day or so ago, Konstantin Kosachev, head of Russia's State Duma Committee for Foreign Affairs, stated that the agreement was "premature' and articulated further that "increasing Russia's involvement is not expedient today becausethis operation is being carried out in the format of a NATO operation.'

No doubt Russia's new stance on NATO's Afghanistan mission is a reaction to President Bush's support of Ukraine and Georgia's ascension to NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP) program, which is an important step to full NATO membership. However, because of Germany and France's opposing stances, it appears unlikely that Ukraine and Georgia will actually be received into NATO's MAP system. It will be intriguing to see how this all plays out during the rest of the Summit which concludes on Friday.

The Bucharest Summit has two important Central Asian guests as well, Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov and Turkmenistan's leader, President Berdymukhammedov. This is Karimov's second NATO summit and Turkmenistan's first appearance. Both of these nations are members of NATO's Partnership for Peace and journalist Bruce Pannier does a fine job discussing their objectives for the Summit.

Both of these nations border Afghanistan and its stability is vital to their own, so joining NATO's discourse on the subject should hopefully breed further cooperation. However, as was discussed above, these two nations will have some of their policy toward NATO's Afghanistan mission dictated by Russia's own dealings with the multilateral-security pact. For instance, the Russian-NATO partnership would constitute a land route for supplies into Afghanistan that would go through not only Russian territory, but also Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan. If Russia and NATO/US come to diplomatic blows or a dead-end during the Summit over NATO expansion, parts of NATO's dealings with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan could be affected.

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are hoping this Summit will provide them greater access to Western influence, especially regarding gas pipelines and security cooperation. Pannier's article points out that US Predator drones have hit Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Uzbekistan government's main enemy, targets inside of Pakistan and the Karimov government has let the US use their Termez base on a "case-by-case basis.' Ashgabat is definitely utilizing the Summit as an opportunity to grow out of its isolationist past and as Pannier suggests, Berdymukhammedov may be having some side conversations concerning alternative gas export routes circumventing Russia with several European leaders.

(Picture Source: AFP, Radio Free Europe)