Afghanistan Goes to the Polls: Tomorrow There Will Be….

In a matter of hours many of those eligible to vote in Afghanistan, but not all unfortunately, will go to the polls and choose who they want to govern them for the next half decade.  This election has been fraught with peril and questions for months now and in many ways it’s hard to believe its here.  Though, just like after our own extended presidential election of 2008, I’m sure many Afghans are relieved it’s finally over.  There are many possible scenarios and election results, and just as many Westerners to prognosticate about them, that could occur, but only time will tell.  Will Karzai win without a runoff?  Will Abdullah, Ghani, Bashardost, etc. lead the way to a second round?  How much will election day violence affect the outcome, and more specifically, how legitimate the election results appear to be?  Will Afghanistan’s post-election fate be anything like its neighbor Iran’s?  We shall see.

The one word surrounding this whole historical event is ‘cautious’.  As in the people of Afghanistan, the United States, the international community needs to be ‘cautious’ about the prospects for a successful election day and the results that spring forth from it.  Tomorrow, there will be violence.  There will be ethnic tension and votes based on these lines.  There will be Taliban thugs intimidating Afghan citizens.  There will be citizens voting for a candidate they don’t like very much.  There will be many citizens who feel that the outcome is already decided by either corrupt Afghan politicians or by American imperialists.  There will rigging and voter fraud.

But tomorrow, there will also be thousands of Afghans voting for the first time.  There will be millions more voting in their first modern day election, with for the most part, free and fair debate and competition.  There will be a chance that the Afghan state will have a government that most, though far from all, see as a legitimate governor of their society.  There will be neighboring Azeris, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turks, Persians, who will see nearby fellow humans having a voice in how their ruled.  There will be millions of women voting for their future when less than a decade ago the mere thought of such a thing was unfathomable.

So tomorrow will be eventful for the Afghan people and for those of us in America closely paying attention.  An Afghan businessman claimed: “This election is just one more step in building our democracy. The elections next year will be better.”  He is right.  I like his optimism, as ‘next year’ will be better.  I hope he’s right, because for much Afghanistan’s modern existence there have been many tomorrow’s that were not better than their today’s.

Good luck brave people of Afghanistan and to the Americans and foreigners protecting them.  Tomorrow will be challenging and bring new challenges, but a chance for democracy and good governance are worth it.