A Turkish Declaration of War

The Middle East is known for its wars.

Often, Israel is at the center of the conflict, whether through being attacked by its neighbors, launching a preemptive strike to ward off an impending assault or merely subject to the verbal tirades of its opponents. Some critics of the state also argue that Israel has launched a war on the Palestinians by maintaining control of borders and conducting bombing campaigns after terror attacks. Others posit that Israel is already at war with the Palestinians through the near constant bombardment of mortar and artillery shells in southern Israel and the threat of terror attacks around the rest of the country.

All of those interpretations of the Middle East wars have been hashed out time and time again.

However, a new version might be brewing, except this time among allies.

Israel has few friends in the Middle East, but has maintained one true alliance since the year after the country’s founding. In 1949, Turkey became the first Islamic country to recognize Israel. Since that time, the two countries have traded goods, conducted joint military exercises and fostered tourism.

Tensions have risen at various points over the years, including most recently after Turkey objected to Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip after facing rocket fire, as well as Israel enforcing it’s embargo on Gaza by imposing a naval blockade and thwarting ships’ delivery of goods (and, according to some, weapons).

Objections are perfectly fine. In fact, the United States — Israel’s closest ally and lifeline — has repeatedly expressed its concerns regarding continued settlement activity, one of the factors that has been accused of thwarting the peace process.

Turkey is taking its objections, though, beyond merely words or soft power. Turkey is upping the anti and threatening all-out war with Israel.

Many of the ships headed for the Gaza Strip with aid and/or weapons departed from Turkey, with its Prime Minister Recep Erdogan being particularly vocal condemning efforts by Israel to defend its borders. In 2010, Israel boarded the Mavi Marmara ship of Turkish origin after a flotilla of boats attempted to break the naval blockade barring access to Gaza. The Israeli action led to casualties, and the subsequent impounding of the ship at a local port, albeit the aid shipments, which were interspersed with weapons, reached Gaza residents.

As more aid convoys are planned, Turkey is now threatening to send gun ships with any flotillas destined for Gaza. And that decision, if followed through, will be deadly.

Israel will not let ships into the Gaza Strip for fear that weapons on the boats will reach terrorist hands. Israel’s security is paramount, and the government and military will not allow that safety net to be compromised. Israel has and will use force to protect itself, with any escort by Turkey facing the choice to either remain on the sidelines or enter battle. If the latter choice occurs, Turkey will lose, but more importantly, a war between two once strong allies will have been ignited.

But not only that. Other countries could be pulled into the mess. Turkey and Greece have been long-time foes, and Greece has not remained on the sidelines, forbidding a convoy of ships earlier this year to leave Greek ports if heading to the Gaza Strip. The route from Turkey to Gaza would once more pass by Greece, with that government potentially not sitting idly by and letting war break out near its shores. While the possibility is unlikely, Greece could use its military to thwart another flotilla fiasco and continue its objections to boats breaking the blockade. In that event, Turkey would be facing a war with its bitter rival and neighbor, albeit fueled by decades of acrimony.

Regardless of who it’s with, Turkey is clearly setting the stage for some type of war if it sends its gunboats to escort ships that intend to violate a blockade established to prevent terrorism. By defending its borders, Israel would be reacting in the only way it can to protect its citizens, with Turkey ratcheting up its objections through the use of military might.

Hopefully, like the cartoon above depicting Erdogan supporting Palestinians to obtain domestic backers while simultaneously working with Israel, Turkey’s threat is merely posturing with no intention for fulfillment. However, if Erdogan, as it now appears, changes that posture and lets his public demeanor transform into actual policies, war in the region is inevitable — and this time will be very different than previous conflicts, with blame squarely placed on Turkey’s shoulders.