A Pending Iran Strike? The Obama-Abdullah Chat

The cards for a strike on Iran are slowly falling into place, with the White House potentially seeking outside help from a somewhat unlikely ally. Let’s set the scene.

The White House has deemed that negotiations with the Iranian regime are futile and, in order to thwart the Iranian nucleaAr program, the United States must take drastic measures. Speaking at the AIPAC conference earlier today, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a stark warning to Iran that tough sanctions are on the horizon (see my earlier post).

The Israeli government continues to engage in a war of words with the Iranian regime and has mobilized its naval fleet to more effectively strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

A strike on Iran from Israel would have to pass over either Iraqi or Saudi airspace. The use of Iraqi airspace is highly unlikely, as the United States would need Iraqi approval, which it would not receive warmly.

Instead, the use of Saudi airspace is much more realistic. Saudi Arabia staunchly opposes Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, as it would set off an arms race in the region and countries would begin vying for dominance. Moreover, the Shi’ite Iranian government could launch a war against Sunni Saudi Arabia, akin to the Iraq-Iran in the 1980s.

Some reports last year indicated that Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barack held a clandestine meeting with Saudi officials to organize a strike using Saudi airspace. The meeting has not been confirmed, but both countries would benefit from the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program.

Well, what’s new?

President Barack Obama held a brief phone call today with Saudi King Abdullah. The conversation revolved around issues of mutual concern and health care reform. I doubt the Abdullah was seeking Obama’s input on how to navigate Congress, the reconciliation process, and whether to consider deem-and-pass. Instead, the conversation most likely focused on Iran and the peace process. And, perhaps, Obama negotiated conditions for Israeli or U.S. forces to use Saudi airspace for a strike on the Iranian nuclear program.

Or, perhaps, the conversation focused on the peace process. Abdullah spearheaded the Arab peace initiative, aspects of which have been embraced by the United States. The Arab League has threatened to pull the plan if Israel does not restart negotiations with the Palestinians (and therefore enact a full-blown settlement freeze). Perhaps Obama negotiated a renewed commitment to the Arab peace initiative ahead of his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, which follows a tumultuous week of insults and rebuttals.

That said, my money’s on the Iran strike.

But, then again, that’s just speculation. Who knows, maybe Abdullah is trying to enact sweeping social reforms and just needs a little advice.

From the White House:

“This afternoon President Obama spoke with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia who offered his congratulations to the United States on the passage of historic health insurance reform by the House of Representatives.  During their call the two leaders discussed issues of mutual concern and reaffirmed the strong relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States of America.”