A Naxal threat to India's nuclear arsenal?

Someone recently asked me if the Naxalites could be considered a threat to India’s nuclear arsenal. My answer was a potential threat, but a highly remote one.

The Naxalite problem in India has grown exponentially over the last few years, and they have become one of India’s biggest security risks. The recent attacks on security personnel and civilians have shown how violent and barbaric the Naxalities have become. They have stopped being rebels protesting against the government machinery, and become domestic terrorists/ militants. However, I do not think that they are a threat to India’s nuclear arsenal.

One of the most important reasons for this is the fact that the Naxalites primarily operate in the tribal, forested areas that are significantly far away from the major nuclear installations in the country. Though the Naxals have attacked outside of the strictly forest areas, I doubt if they would risk leaving the safety of their hideouts to steal nuclear material sufficient enough to cause harm.  Not to mention the heightened counter-operations against the Naxalites in the recent months.

I also think that if we look at their fighting methods, nuclear attacks do not seem to fit their MO. Conventional weapons, the smaller quick killing machines that each can carry seem more like their idea of weapons.  The Naxalites mostly operate using guerrilla tactics  within a restricted area. To carry out a nuclear attack they would have to leave their safety zones and venture out far enough so that they themselves are shielded from the effects of a nuclear explosion.

Another important aspect to be considered is that even though industrial safety and security are not exactly exemplary in India, nuclear installations are among the highest priority units in terms of security. They are mostly under IAEA safeguards which also include guidelines for physical security of such installations. India’s nuclear sites are heavily guarded and protected and I do not believe that it would be easy to sneak out sufficient nuclear material to detonate a bomb. Any kind of nuclear device would require significant infrastructure and training on part of the Naxals. It seems improbable considering that most of the Naxal recruits come from the tribal, under-privileged populations.

This does not mean that the Naxalites could not pose a threat to Indian nuclear installations in the future. But, it is a difficult proposition and can be thwarted by controlling the Naxal menace. It would take comprehensive policy planning and security operations that the Manmohan Singh government has promised to carry out.

As nuclear installations in the country increase with India’s emphasis on nuclear energy to meet its growing energy requirements, the security of these establishments would demand more focus. For the security and safety of its people and to maintain credibility as a responsible nuclear power, India would have to implement the best security practices. It would also help to take a hard look at its industrial safety policies and implement necessary changes for the safety of its people. The nuclear liability bill is an important part of this equation, and should be debated objectively with the highest priority to the overall security situation in the country.