A chance at leadership

It looks like India might get a new nuclear-weapons neighbor to its north east. According to recent reports Myanmar may be on its way to developing military nuclear capability with the help of North Korea. Myanmar and North Korea have improved their military trade relations over the last few years, and nuclear collaboration as an extension of those relations seems possible. On the civilian front Myanmar had signed a deal with Russia in 2007 for the construction of a nuclear research center which includes a 10MW light-water research reactor.

In spite of the anti-democracy military junta in power in Myanmar, India took a pragmatic decision in 2000 to let national interests dictate foreign policy towards Myanmar. It decided to develop cordial relations with the military junta and “not interfere in its internal affairs” i.e. not force it to restore democracy. This new ‘Look East’ policy was largely influenced by the growing insurgent activities in its northeastern states and countering an increasing Chinese influence in Myanmar. Insurgents in northeast India were believed to operate through camps from both sides of the India-Myanmar border. Economic aspirations in the South East Asian region and Myanmar’s large oil and gas reserves also played a role in the change in India’s attitude. Till then it had strongly opposed the suppression of democracy and even awarded Aung San Suu Kyi the Jawaharlal Nehru Peace Prize in 1995 for her contribution to the democratic movement in Myanmar. However, since 2000 India and Myanmar have been actively collaborating on weeding out insurgents along the border and developing trade links between the two countries. Security and economic concerns have taken precedence over promoting democracy in the region.

Dealing with a Myanmar desiring military nuclear capabilities could be both a challenge and a defining opportunity for India. If it plays its cards properly a potential Myanmar nuclear problem could be India’s ticket to being an even bigger regional and international player. It might help pave the way for the long-awaited permanent seat at the UN Security Council. While keeping quiet about Myanmar’s nuclear aspirations could be construed as an approval of Myanmar’s actions, strong condemnation could seriously hamper bilateral relations. But India should also make it clear that it does not stand by nuclear proliferators.

Diplomatic efforts of the last eight years mean that India now has some influence in dealing with Myanmar’s military junta. It would therefore be wise for India to speak out against Myanmar’s nuclear ambitions only when it has definitive proof of military related activities. Premature condemnation could make Myanmar shut out India. It should use its influence to privately obtain official information about the program, and ensure that Myanmar does not leave the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). Once it leaves the NPT it would be difficult to control Myanmar’s military nuclear ambitions. Assuming a leadership role India could collaborate with Russia (who already has a presence in Myanmar’s nuclear plans) to talk to Myanmar and keep it from going the North Korea way. Its influence means that India could be an important negotiating member in case Myanmar goes ahead with a nuclear weapons program.

A nuclear weapons free Myanmar is not only important for India’s own security but also for its international non-proliferation obligations. A nuclear Myanmar would mean that Bangladesh will also desire a nuclear weapons program. Bangladesh would definitely not want to be sandwiched between two nuclear weapons countries without a deterrent of its own. A nuclear arms race in a region of unfriendly neighbors could make the South/South East Asia Asian region as volatile as the Middle East. India has a chance to play an important leadership role in avoiding that scenario by dealing prudently with Myanmar’s ambitions. It should watch its neighbor carefully and seize the opportunity to increase its international standing.