Year in review
For Lebanon, 2010 was dominated by the continued investigation into the death of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hariri was murdered in February 2005, sparking off massive protests that led to the end of Syria’s 30 year occupation of Lebanon.
Since 2007, the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) has been gathering evidence in the case, and has been the cause of endless speculation since its inception. At one point, it was thought that Syrian operatives would be named as suspects, but over the course of the year, it seems that the focus has shifted to another power player in Lebanon: Hizballah.
Whether it’s the Syrians or Hizballah party members that are named, the resulting backlash could greatly threaten Lebanese stability. As a result, the people of Lebanon have been effectively held hostage by the Tribunal, as they wait for the chips to fall where they may.
Person of the Year- Saad Hariri
Current Prime Minister Saad Hariri spent 2010 building and strengthening relationships with world and regional powers to ensure the stability of his country. Mr. Hariri traveled to Iran, Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United States to speak with their respective leaders about their ability to influence events in Lebanon. Perhaps more than any other country, Lebanon is highly susceptible to outside meddling, and Hariri made it his mission in 2010 to make sure that those countries did not cause any undue trouble in Beirut and elsewhere.
Notable Death- Hussein Fadlallah
Grand Ayatollah Hussein Fadlallah passed away over the summer and his death was mourned throughout the Shiite world and beyond. Originally known as the alleged “spiritual leader” of Hizballah, throughout his life Fadlallah established himself as a moderate and respected voice in Lebanon and the Middle East. He offered a pragmatic alternative to the hard-line Shiite clerics of Iran, and his death leaves a gaping hole in the upper echelons of Shia Islam. He was 74.
Unexpected event- Hizballah expects to be indicted
After Rafik Hariri was murdered in 2005, fingers were quickly pointed at Damascus, which was becoming increasingly frustrated with Hariri’s growing power in Lebanon. Along with motive, Syria also had the opportunity to undertake the Hariri assassination, as they had hundreds of intelligence operatives stationed in Beirut at the time. It was the most plausible scenario at the time, and many say it still is.
Regardless of any perceived guilt on the part of Syria, over the course of 2010, Hizballah became convinced that some of their members were going to be indicted in the case. And they reacted accordingly, threatening violence if any of their people were to be arrested. The situation is so sensitive that Saad Hariri traveled to Tehran to see if the Persians could reign in Hizballah. Over the last few months, Lebanon and Iran have exchanged high profile visits in an attempt to establish a working relationship for the future. At this point, it is unclear exactly how Hizballah would react to any arrest warrants, let alone whether any regional player could be effective at talking them out of violence, should the situation warrant such a course of action.
What to watch for in 2011- Syrian resurgence, Tribunal indictments, Outcome of the Saudi-Syrian agreement
Along with the STL indictments that are expected to be handed down in the early part of 2011, we should also learn the result of all the high level bargaining that has been going on behind the scenes between Saudi Arabia and Syria. It is expected that Saad Hariri will remain Prime Minister following any shake up, but aside from that it seems that there is a lot in play here. Lebanon’s government has barely accomplished anything since Hariri formed it in 2009. The outcome of the Saudi-Syrian talks could provide a break in the impasse.
Related to the above, Syria’s resurgence in Lebanon should be a big topic in 2011. Syrian occupation of Lebanon ended in 2005, but due to changing political realities and the shrewd strategies employed by Damascus, Lebanon is back squarely in Syria’s sphere of influence. Look for this trend to continue in 2011.
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